Monday, October 24, 2016

Prediction

This is a sublime, perfect day in October here in Dayton, where I have lived for the past five years. I never expected in my seventy years before this that I would live in Dayton, Ohio, and just love it. I just came in from a bike ride on the banks of the Great Miami River in the morning sunshine and felt “free as an Eagle's wing,” as Thoreau once put it. In fact, I thought for several reasons, as well as felt, that I would be dead by now.

"Free as an Eagle's wing..."  - Thoreau

How often we might reflect and ask whether even five years ago we could have imagined being where we are now!

It would seem at first that no “social scientist” could possibly even imagine that it was possible to predict what will happen socially when even predicting one thinking individual's future is impossible. And yet that is the predominant theory in social science, psychology, economics, political science, and related human “sciences.” It really is incredible, but it's true and has been true for over two-hundred years.